Daily Commentary - Posted on Thursday, April 30, 2009, 11:20 PM GMT +1
Trading the Odds on Friday – May 1, 2009
Until we started into the final 2 hours of today’s session, it seemed that the market would close on another strong note today, refusing to go down when market history and the respective probabilities and odds suggested it ‘should‘ at least consolidate some of it’s recent gains (concerning the setups which were triggered on Wednesday’s close, see my post Trading the Odds on Thursday – April 30, 2009).
But during the last 2 hours of today’s session, the market (S&P 500) gave back almost all of today’s gains (as the ‘6 Highs’ setup on strong breadth triggered on Wednesday’s session suggested) to finally close modestly lower -0.11% on the day, after the SPX had already posted an intraday high of +1.72% above yesterday’s close. Only the Nasdaq managed a solid gain of +0.86% on the close.
From my perspective the only remarkabe setup triggered on Thursday’s close is the fact that speculative interest is running very high for several consecutive sessions now. The 2-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) of Nasdaq Volume / NYSE Volume closed above 165% on the third consecutive session today, it’s highest level since February 13, 2009.
Since 10/01/2007 there were 69 occurrences (not really a rare event) where the 2-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) of Nasdaq Volume / NYSE Volume closed above 165% on three consecutive session. The following table (Table I) shows the S&P 500’s behavior and the respective performance over the course of the then following 10 sessions concerning those 69 occurrences since 10/01/2007 which fulfilled the setup mentioned before. Especially notable is the fact that although this is not a rare event and the sample size with 69 occurrences may probably have some statistical relevance, over the course of the then following 10 sessions (!) true chances for a higher/lower close (probabilities) and odds (profit factor as the sum of all profits divided by the sum of all losses) are (significantly) tilt in favor of lower quotes ahead, with the session immediately following the session where the signal had been triggered (Friday’s session) with the most favorable expectancy of all 10 sessions (also negative, but the closest to the respective at-any-time profit factor):
Whenever the signal had been triggered, the S&P 500 was -on average- trading higher 2 days later only on one out of every three sessions (22 with a higher close versus 48 with a lower close two days later), and one week later higher only on one out of every 5 sessions (14 with a higher close versus 56 with a lower close six days later). Average gains and average losses x days later are approximately even, so the negative expectancy is based on the negative win/loss ratio over the course of the then following 10 sessions.
- Assumed no other setup would be triggered suggesting a significant bullish short-term outlook, over the course of the next couple of sessions I’d always keep in mind the setup and stats mentioned above. They may indicate that as long as speculative interest hasn’t come down to normal levels again, upside potential for the markets may probably be limited over the next couple of sessions (a short-term top at hand), and any further gains may provide at least an opportunity to take some money of the table, but probably a short-term shorting opportunity (like today) as well.
P.s.: WordPress recently implemented a Twitter widget, so I’ll regularly make some intraday updates as well using Twitter (as I already did during the last couple of session, but unfortunately there seems to be a connectivity issue between WordPress and Twitter; hope that will be solved soon). If you’re interested in, please have a look at the blog during the trading session as well or subscribe directly to Twitter (recommended).
Disclosure: No positions in the securities mentioned in this post at time of writing.