Comments on: Trading the Odds on Friday – May 1, 2009 http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/04/trading-the-odds-on-friday-may-1-2009/ A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:40:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: GH http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/04/trading-the-odds-on-friday-may-1-2009/#comment-3818 GH Fri, 01 May 2009 19:47:35 +0000 http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/?p=1018#comment-3818 Great site, great info. Thanks so much. Great site, great info. Thanks so much.

]]> By: be the ball http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/04/trading-the-odds-on-friday-may-1-2009/#comment-3817 be the ball Fri, 01 May 2009 15:12:53 +0000 http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/?p=1018#comment-3817 Thanks for the detail...helps to clarify things...love what you are doing here Thanks for the detail…helps to clarify things…love what you are doing here

]]> By: Frank http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/04/trading-the-odds-on-friday-may-1-2009/#comment-3816 Frank Fri, 01 May 2009 04:00:57 +0000 http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/?p=1018#comment-3816 be the ball, thanks for your comment, but concerning the setup's profit factor I think I've to go a bit more into detail. The at-any-time profit factor reflects the average performance (sum of all profits divided by the sum of all losses) of the respective index over the course of the then following x sessions. The column with day 1 therefore reflects the average SPX' 1-day performance during the given time frame, and you may notice that the at-any-time profit factor steadily declines over the course of the 10 sessions (which reflects the fact that we're in a bear market with on average declining prices over the course of time). The at-any-time profit factor -in order to be comparable- always covers the same time frame as the setup/survey does. And a large sample size with a (significant) worse profit factor in comparison to the at-any-time profit factor means if one would have invested only at the end of those sessions where the setup had been triggered during the given time frame, you'd have -with a high reliability- picked up those 'opportunities'/sessions (in a negative sense) - with a far worse performance over the course of time than if you'd have always been invested or would have invested randomly. If a large sample size would be bound to have a negative outlook only due to the trend, it could have a profit factor below 1 only, not necessarily one which is significant worse than the at-any-time profit factor. Best reagrds, Frank be the ball,

thanks for your comment, but concerning the setup’s profit factor I think I’ve to go a bit more into detail.

The at-any-time profit factor reflects the average performance (sum of all profits divided by the sum of all losses) of the respective index over the course of the then following x sessions. The column with day 1 therefore reflects the average SPX’ 1-day performance during the given time frame, and you may notice that the at-any-time profit factor steadily declines over the course of the 10 sessions (which reflects the fact that we’re in a bear market with on average declining prices over the course of time).

The at-any-time profit factor -in order to be comparable- always covers the same time frame as the setup/survey does. And a large sample size with a (significant) worse profit factor in comparison to the at-any-time profit factor means if one would have invested only at the end of those sessions where the setup had been triggered during the given time frame, you’d have -with a high reliability- picked up those ‘opportunities’/sessions (in a negative sense) – with a far worse performance over the course of time than if you’d have always been invested or would have invested randomly.

If a large sample size would be bound to have a negative outlook only due to the trend, it could have a profit factor below 1 only, not necessarily one which is significant worse than the at-any-time profit factor.

Best reagrds,
Frank

]]> By: be the ball http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/04/trading-the-odds-on-friday-may-1-2009/#comment-3815 be the ball Fri, 01 May 2009 02:11:02 +0000 http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com/?p=1018#comment-3815 quick question. Is your "at any time" profit factor also only going back to Oct 2007? Or does it go further? We are in a bear market and such a large sample size as this one is bound to have a negative outlook on future days simply due to the trend. Thanks quick question. Is your “at any time” profit factor also only going back to Oct 2007? Or does it go further?

We are in a bear market and such a large sample size as this one is bound to have a negative outlook on future days simply due to the trend.

Thanks

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