Daily Commentary - Posted on Saturday, August 22, 2009, 11:15 PM GMT +1
Blogging Takes A Short Break Until September 6 (due to vacation)
I’ll be busy and on vacation the next two weeks visiting Italy, regularly without any internet access and – other than on my last vacation – necessary time (and desire) for analyzing and blogging about the markets day after day. But at least I’ll try to tweet my observations (probabilities and odds) if procurable.
If you post an email or comment to me through my blog I will get back to you when I return latest.
Anyway it seems the right time to take a breather from the markets, Friday’s (option expiration) session was – concerning the market’s compliance to historical probabilities and odds which called for a negative tendency right from the start of the session instead of a big move on the upside – a bit disillusioning (after posting a low of –1.0% (at 996.5) below Thursday’s close on GLOBEX the night before) and indicating – at least to a certain degree – some kind of ‘abnormal’ market conditions which makes it – momentarily – difficult to forecast the next session’s probabilities and odds based on historical occurrences only. At least adjusting one’s usual position size accordingly seems to be advisable for the time being.
But that’s always the challenge with trading probabilities, not certainties.