Daily Commentary - Posted on Tuesday, September 29, 2009, 11:08 PM GMT +1

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Sep Tuesday 29

Trading the Odds on Wednesday – September 30, 2009

Although on Monday’s session the ES E-MINI S&P 500 fully complied to the forecasted slightly negative bias on the close and the supposed tight range (see my posting Trading the Odds on Tuesday – September 29, 2009), unfortunately it didn’t leave much to lean on short term.

The ES E-MINI S&P 500 opened higher +0.12%, posted an intraday low of -0.54% below and an intraday high of +0.64% above Monday’s close, and finally closed lower -0.42% on the day, while the Nasdaq 100 closed lower -0.40% (S&P 500 -0.22%, DJ Ind. -0.48%, Russel 2000 -0.45%, SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.43% , BKX Philadelphia Bank Index -0.36%).

None of those setups which were triggered on Tuesday’s close provides a significant edge on any side of the market (and/or show contradictory tendencies), but a lower close immediately following a strong up day (and therefore the markets inability to immediately build upon those gains) is – from a longer-term historical and statistical perspective – not a winning proposition with respect to the next session’s performance (profit factor, average trade), although probabilities are slightly – if at all – tilt in favor of a higher close (see my posting Pullback After Strong Up Days – Positive or Negative ?).

Due to the fact that I’ll be busy tomorrow morning (German local time) due to some personal matters, next regular posting will be for Thursday’s session.

Successful trading,

P.s.: I’ll regularly make some intraday updates as well using Twitter. If you’re interested in, please have a look at the blog during the session as well (Twitter updates are shown on the upper right section of the blog) or subscribe directly to Twitter (recommended).


Disclaimer: The information on this site is provided for statistical and informational purposes only. Nothing herein should be interpreted or regarded as personalized investment advice or to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. Under no circumstances does this information represent an advice or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. No position in the securities mentioned in this post at time of writing.

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