Comments on: Trading the Odds on Monday – October 19, 2009 http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/10/trading-the-odds-on-monday-%e2%80%93-october-19-2009/ A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:40:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: CarlosR http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/10/trading-the-odds-on-monday-%e2%80%93-october-19-2009/#comment-4081 CarlosR Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:42:21 +0000 http://www.tradingtheodds.com/?p=21161#comment-4081 Frank, You're right, there was some misunderstanding on my part. I think your wording is fine, now that I get it. Thanks for the explanation. Frank,

You’re right, there was some misunderstanding on my part. I think your wording is fine, now that I get it. Thanks for the explanation.

]]> By: TradingTheOdds http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/10/trading-the-odds-on-monday-%e2%80%93-october-19-2009/#comment-4080 TradingTheOdds Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:16:57 +0000 http://www.tradingtheodds.com/?p=21161#comment-4080 CarlosR, I think there is a misunderstanding (because it seems you're thinking about buying/selling THE higher/lower open). Example: I would go long in the event of a higher open (e.g. +0.30%) on any weakness early during the first hour of the sessions (e.g. when the ES E-MINI would then be trading -0.30% below Friday's close, but I'd NOT buy THE open). So it would be nice to know that -on a positive open- the ES E-MINI would -on average- close 0.50% above the open (which would make for a theoretical gain of +0.60%+0.50%=1.10%). Buying/selling THE open would be less favorable (due to the unfavorable risk:reward ratio if we don't get a trend day in the desired direction). I thought the Bottom line '<em>In the event of a higher open, I'd be a buyer on any weakness early during the first hour of the session</em>' would be clear enough. Due to the fact that this setup might be triggered more often in the future, please let me know if there is a better suggestion. Best, Frank CarlosR,

I think there is a misunderstanding (because it seems you’re thinking about buying/selling THE higher/lower open).

Example: I would go long in the event of a higher open (e.g. +0.30%) on any weakness early during the first hour of the sessions (e.g. when the ES E-MINI would then be trading -0.30% below Friday’s close, but I’d NOT buy THE open). So it would be nice to know that -on a positive open- the ES E-MINI would -on average- close 0.50% above the open (which would make for a theoretical gain of +0.60%+0.50%=1.10%). Buying/selling THE open would be less favorable (due to the unfavorable risk:reward ratio if we don’t get a trend day in the desired direction).

I thought the Bottom line ‘In the event of a higher open, I’d be a buyer on any weakness early during the first hour of the session‘ would be clear enough. Due to the fact that this setup might be triggered more often in the future, please let me know if there is a better suggestion.

Best,
Frank

]]> By: CarlosR http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2009/10/trading-the-odds-on-monday-%e2%80%93-october-19-2009/#comment-4079 CarlosR Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:36:21 +0000 http://www.tradingtheodds.com/?p=21161#comment-4079 Frank, I may be missing something here (likely I am). But it seems to me that comparing the close-to-close gain as a function of whether you have a higher or lower opening is not very useful. The reason is that you may well have experienced most of that gain by the time the open happens, so that there's not much (if any) gain left to realize during the day session. Wouldn't looking at tomorrow's gain from just the open to the close, as a function of a lower or higher opening, be more useful? Those would be gains that would still be available to capture with a day trade. Or did I misunderstand what you are saying in your posting? Frank, I may be missing something here (likely I am). But it seems to me that comparing the close-to-close gain as a function of whether you have a higher or lower opening is not very useful. The reason is that you may well have experienced most of that gain by the time the open happens, so that there’s not much (if any) gain left to realize during the day session.

Wouldn’t looking at tomorrow’s gain from just the open to the close, as a function of a lower or higher opening, be more useful? Those would be gains that would still be available to capture with a day trade.

Or did I misunderstand what you are saying in your posting?

]]>