no, the negative bias doesn’t end at the end of the first out, it still exists into the close (18 higher and 20 lower closes, profit factor 0.49 only which means you’d lose 1 dollar for every 49cent gained).

Probabilites and odds are slightly improving over the course of the session, worst at the open and (relatively) best at the close, but betting on a higher close would’ve always been an unfavorable wager.

For betting on the long side, a profit factor above 1 is mandatory and statistically significance (t-score above/below +/-1.645) required.

Best,
Frank

Regarding your intraday performance table, there is a reasonable difference between (winning trades at open) vs. (winning trades first hour/prev close). Could we say that negative bias ends at the first hour of the session?

I’m positioned on the short side but not in the E-MINIs. In fact I’m long volatility (VIX not mentioned in the post).

Best,
Frank

You tweeted a short at the close of the futures today in the ES. Your disclaimer shows no position in the ES.

Are your tweets during the day strictly for the hypothetical TTO portfolio and are not necessarily a real position?

Thanks for clarifying