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Daily Commentary - Posted by on February 25, 2010

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Recovery Days Revisited

The RSI-High/Low(2) indicator seems to provide a good indication that buyers will not let the market go down without a fight (see my posting Modified RSI(2), Buying Power and Intermediate-Term Outlook ). But today's recovery from a significant intrad

Daily Commentary - Posted by on February 22, 2010

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Modified RSI(2), Buying Power and Intermediate-Term Outlook

During the last couple of sessions almost all major US market indices showed a remarkable strength concerning their ability to not only recoup almost all of their intraday losses (like on last Friday's session), but to close above the open as well. F

Studies - Posted by on February 14, 2010

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Evaluation of Momentum Oscillators

Due to the fact that when bloggers/the bloggosphere/traders are discussing and talking about the 'overbought' ('oversold') state of the market (betting on a short-term mean-reversion tendency), they are regularly referring to and utilizing J. Welles

Daily Commentary - Posted by on February 11, 2010

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President's Day – But Not For The Markets

In full compliance to historical probabilites and odds, US major market closed lower on last Monday's session immediately following a session where the SPY had posted an intraday low at least -1.75% below the previous sessions close, but closed posit

Daily Commentary - Posted by on February 6, 2010

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Recovery Days and Short-Term Outlook

US major market indices fully complied to historical probabilities and odds when the VIX had surged 20%+ on a single session in the past: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) showed the expected intraday weakness (follow-through of Thursday's weakness), went up

Daily Commentary - Posted by on February 5, 2010

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VIX surges 20% as fear returns …

Major markets sold off today, with the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) up more than 20%. From a historical and statistical perspective, when the VIX surged 20% or more on a single session in the past, the market regularly turned around the then following