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Daily Commentary - Posted by on March 30, 2010

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TRADING THE ODDS on Tuesday, March 30

For the session on Monday, March 29 I published a Market Snapshot ( see Setups, Probabilities and Odds ) showing a list of potential setups based on the SPY's current open|high|low|close|first hour|last hour quotes and the then current number of cons

Daily Commentary, Studies - Posted by on March 28, 2010

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Setups, Probabilities and Odds

I'm just playing around with / testing a mechanism on how to quantify the next session's probabilities and odds for a higher / lower close on the then following session not only based on and triggered by a single setup on the previous session's close

Studies - Posted by on March 23, 2010

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O|H|L|C Probability and Profitability (Part II)

This is a follow-up on my previous posting O|H|L|C Probability and Profitability (Part I) looking for historical probabilities and odds with respect to favorable setups on the long side of the market based on daily open|high|low|close prices of the

Daily Commentary - Posted by on March 21, 2010

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O|H|L|C Probability and Profitability (Part I)

Although the efficient-market hypothesis claims that prices of financial assets always exhibit random walk behavior and thus can not be predicted with consistency, history shows that there are a couple of favorable setups based on daily open|high|low

Daily Commentary - Posted by on March 15, 2010

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Level of Bullishness

With Friday's session, the market showed a level of bullishness rarely observed over the course of the last 20 years: The SPY (S&P 500 SPDR ETF) closed higher on the 11th consecutive session (now 4 occurrences since 01/01/1990), The SPY hasn'

Daily Commentary - Posted by on March 11, 2010

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Implications of High RSI(2) Readings

On Wednesday's session, and with respect to the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI) for a 2-day period closed above 95 the sixth day in a row, and above 99 on the fourth consecutive session. With respect to the latter,

Daily Commentary - Posted by on March 7, 2010

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Seasonalities: SPY's ex-Dividend Days

First of all it seems that the bullish setup triggered on Friday, February 19, 2010 (five consecutive sessions with an RSI-High/Low (2-day) closing above 95, see my posting Modified RSI(2), Buying Power and Intermediate-Term Outlook) is currently pla