great site by the way — really appreciate your work

Kyle

with SPY up greater than +1.0% on an employment report release date, since 1990 SPY closed higher on 18 and lower on 25 occurrences the next session. The respective rank of the setup’s distribution of daily returns is – with 38.42% – lopsided on the downside (means the median return is – in comparison to the at-any-time rank of the median return of 50% – skewed on the downside).

An otherwise bullish setup (higher close on an employment report release date) -at least with respect to the probability of a higher close the next session, not necessarily with respect to the odds- turns negative with SPY up > +1.0%.

But I don’t expect much downside on Monday’s session, it’s more a consolidation.

Best,
Frank

Seems like you went against your earlier thoughts of going long when index closes greater .5%, what made you go short.
is it oversold levels of your indicaotrs if SO, then they were oversold even yesterday right??

thanks again for your dedication to help the newb’s

a buy signal would’ve been triggered anyway regardless of the job numbers today. Another buy signal will be triggered at today’s close in the event of a higher close today …

Best,
Frank

thanks for the post, quick question

1. you went long because of seaonality study which says go long before job numbers are released ???

thanks
Bill