Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 30, 2010
In my previous posting ( The First and the Last Session of a Month ) I showed that long-term, but most recently as well, probabilities (for a higer/lower close) and odds are (partly heavily) tilt in favor of lower prices during and at the close of th
Daily Commentary, Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 29, 2010
We're currently entering into (the middle of) the so-called 'turn-of-the- month' time frame, regularly defined as the last two sessions (sometimes the last session only) and the first three sessions of each month. You'll find a lot of research on
Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 26, 2010
Up to now I have never been tracking the Permanent Open Market Operations (or "POMO") activity of the FED (it wasn't in my arsenal of seasonalities like the release dates of the Job Report and the Consumer Price Index, or the FED announcement session
Daily Commentary, Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 23, 2010
A couple of days ago I posted about the market's short- and intermediate-term performance in the event the S&P 500 closed lower the session immediately following the Labor Day (exchange) holiday ( see September’s and Labor Day’s Almanac ). Ju
Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 21, 2010
Most recently Michael Stokes at MarketSci had – as always – an excellent and very inspiring posting about Bank of England Andrew Haldane's The Power of Momentum Strategy, (a couple of days) before picked up and discussed by Felix Salmon and Econo
Daily Commentary, Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 20, 2010
With US major market indexes almost going vertical (up), historical occurrences (e.g. seasonalities like September's triple witching) and respective probabilities and odds (which were heavily lopsided in favor of the downside on Monday, September 20)
Daily Commentary, Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 18, 2010
Besides the fact that next week will be the week immediately following options expiration which historically shows a (significantly) negative tendency (see my posting September’s Triple Witching), there're at least two other seasonalities as well
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