Tuesday, March 24, 2009 5:30 AM GMT +1
ABOUT
ABOUT ME
Frank,
Germany
I have traded as an individual investor for more than 20 years now, trading for a living since 2007. I take a statistical approach in combination with historical market data to profit in the US equity and future markets, focused on intraday and swing trading opportunities, regularly utilizing S&P 500 E-mini futures for day trading, and -leveraged- US equity index ETFs like ProShares and Direxion Funds for swing trading purposes.
Please accept my apologies for not being a native speaker, and please take respect to the fact that that blog is (and will probably be for the time being) under construction (there is always room for improvement, especially right after the start, and your suggestions are always more than welcome).
My email: email@tradingtheodds.com
I accept and display no advertising or link exchanges, and I’m not compensated for or receive benefits in any way whatsoever from anything discussed or even mentioned on the blog.
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THE MISSION OF THE BLOG
This blog is all about using the power of statistics in combination with historical market data to profit in the US equity and future markets. It is about trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker: The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much you bet on each trade or wager. If you are a day/swing trader and believe that trading, for all that it is a game of chance, is to the most part a game of skill, this blog may be for you.
Consistently profitable blackjack/poker players and traders pursue their goals as a business, not as a leisurely pursuit therefore taking a completely different approach towards betting/trading from people who play for the action, the excitement and the dream of getting rich quick. Trading is a game of odds NOT certainties, and preserving your equity is vital by taking small losses when you’re wrong and increasing your stake at the right time to maximize profits. Trading is not a game of being right more often than wrong, but all about being profitable.
What will be my value-add to the reader ?
- (almost) each day I’ll try to comment on interesting pattern in the market’s which might provide a tradable edge for (or over the course of the) the next trading day(s), based on a historical and statistical analysis how those pattern played out in the past, and which probabilities (the true chances that the event -regularly a high/lower open/high/low/close/close -open- will occur) and odds (the profit factor as the sum of all historical profits divided by the sum of all historical losses which more or less equals the amounts that -on average- will be payed out on winning bets/trades in order to determine the expectancy) might be applied. Regularly I’ll post historical probabilities and odds for a higher/lower S&P 500 (and/or SPY, Nasdaq 100, QQQQ, Russel 2000 or DJ Ind.) index open, a potential higher high/lower low, close, close above/below the open, and the respective odds (profit factor) in comparison to the respective at-any-time probabilities and odds (comparatively to a ‘buy and hold’ approach), and
- with Wordpress recently adding the capability to bring Twitter to the blog, I’ll regularly post some intraday updates concerning if -and to what potential extend- the market may provide a tradable edge based on the last session’s analysis and forecast for the the then current session.
Successful trading
Frank
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