Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 26, 2012
Compliant to historical probabilities and odds, major market indices advanced (again) in response to the FED's decision to leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. S&P 500 and the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) closed at a 5-month high (and
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 24, 2012
Today marked the 17th consecutive session where the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) hasn't lost more than -0.52% on a close to close basis (besides the fact that this is the 2nd lower close only during the last 11 sessions). Historically, comparable stre
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 22, 2012
Besides the fact that even betting on a one-day decline (leave alone calling a top) has been a receipt for disaster during 2012 (so far), complacency has set in (again) among retail investors. On Friday, January 20, the VXO (CBOE S&P 100® Volat
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 19, 2012
The S&P 500 is up 4.52% year-to-date on Thursday, January 19, 2012, and provided that major market indices will not fall into a bottomless abyss on tomorrow's option expiration, the S&P 500 will be up +2.0% year-to-date on close of the fina
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 18, 2012
Up to now major market indices defy all (seasonal) odds (hitting a fresh multi-month high on Wednesday, January 18), with SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) closing out the week including the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day exchange holiday with a loss in 10 ou
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 13, 2012
Next week will be the week including Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, a United States federal holiday and an exchange holiday since 1998 (observed on the third Monday of January). From a seasonal perspective, the week including Martin Luther King, Jr. D
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 12, 2012
Next week will be option expiration week, and the S&P 500 is currently trading at (or close to) a multi-month high. Therefore I thought it would be interesting to check if option expiration week historically favors the bulls and a continuation o
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