Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Major market indices closed at another multi-month high on February 3, 2012, and the endless number of bullish setups being triggered during the last couple of weeks proofed to be right (at least up to now). The S&P 500 closed out the first week in February with a +2.17% (weekly) gain, closed at its highest level since July 22, 2011, at the same time up +6.94% year-to-date, and up +5.31% over the trailing month. Although a couple ...
Major market indices closed at multi-month highs on January 25, 2012 (FOMC announcement session), followed by a (small) pullback on the then following (yesterday's) session. Looking at historical precedences when the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) had closed either at a 30-day high or low on an FOMC announcement session, followed by a lower close immediately thereafter, this had significantly positive implications over the course of the next couple of weeks. Table I below shows the SPY‘s (S&P ...
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Jan 4, 2012, 10:08 AM GMT +1
2012 started with a bang, with major market indexes (and Gold as well) finishing up 1.5%+ on Tuesday's close. The S&P 100 closed at a trailing 3-months high, and the S&P 500, the AMEX Composite and the Russell 2000 at a trailing 1-months high
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Jan 3, 2012, 8:06 PM GMT +1
The S&P 500 is up 1.64% at time of writing (Tuesday, January 3, 2011, 02:00 pm ET), fully compliant to those bullish setups triggered on close of the last session(s) of 2001 (see Bullish End-of-the-Year Setups, Trailing Week and Week-to-Date at Y
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Jan 1, 2012, 2:20 PM GMT +1
Posting extended - see Part II (NYSE new highs at elevated levels) in the midst ! __________________ The S&P 500 closed out the year at unchanged levels, while the SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) gained +1.89% due to its dividend payments. The time
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 30, 2011, 5:08 PM GMT +1
When the markets showed an extraordinary strong performance on those sessions immediately preceding Christmas Day, but far less convincingly returns between Christmas Day and the end of the year, as a consequence the S&P 500 had performed better
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 29, 2011, 9:20 AM GMT +1
Wednesday's sessions has been unique in many respects. It was the first 90%+ down volume day since 1965, Gold posted its biggest one-day loss (-1.75%) since 1969, down more than -2.0% two days after Christmas Day for the first time since 1969, alway
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 28, 2011, 5:16 PM GMT +1
At time of writing (11:11 am ET), the S&P 500 is currently down -0.81%, which might provide a favorable intermediate-term buying opportunity. On Tuesday, December 27, more than 4.5% of NYSE listed issues closed at a fresh 52-week high for the 4t
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 26, 2011, 3:45 PM GMT +1
The Santa Claus rally has come in a bit late this year, but not too late, and its delayed presents had been quite impressive so far. The SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) closed out the Xmas week with a 3.95% gain, closing above the previous session's high on
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