Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
The expected (see OpEx Week and Multi-Month High) short-term pullback took two days only, and the SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) closed out February's option expiration week with a streak of three consecutive sessions where a new trailing 1-year(+) high price has been made (or matched) during the session. But historically February's option expiration shows a remarkable tendency for major market indices to reverse course over the remainder of the month in the event the S&P 500 had ...
At time of writing (2:36 pm ET) the SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) is up +0.77% and on the verge of closing at a fresh traling 1 year high. When the SPY had closed higher ≥ 0.50% at a fresh 3 (or more) months high on the first session of option expiration week (regularly a Monday) in the past, this had been indicative of limited upside potential over the next couple of sessions. Table I below shows the ...
Featured - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 21, 2011, 6:21 PM GMT +1
A couple of months ago I introduced blog readers to my modification of Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI) ( see Modified RSI(2), Buying Power and Intermediate-Term Outlook ), utilizing an underlying's high | low | close (instead of close vs. pre
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 20, 2011, 10:43 PM GMT +1
After a couple of negative price changes and/or lackluster performance days (see Missing Progress on the Upside … ), the SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) hit the gain and surged higher +3.03% today. With respect to the setup ”The SPY closed 0.50%+ be
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 17, 2011, 11:29 PM GMT +1
Although the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) fully complied to historical probabilities and odds suggesting a higher close one and two sessions later (in this event on Thursday and Friday last week) in the event volume in declining issues on the NYSE outn
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 15, 2011, 1:40 PM GMT +1
The SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR) lost another -1.06% on Wednesday's session, and volume in declining issues outnumbered volume in advancing issues by a 3 : 1 ratio (or ≥ 75.0%) the third day in a row (89.51% on December 12, 81.20% on December 13, and
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 14, 2011, 11:04 PM GMT +1
Another lower close today, and it seems that this year me might abandon the theories about positive seasonalities in December. With respect to trading with the odds, Thursday's session might be a make-or-break game (just kidding). By losing another
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 13, 2011, 1:11 PM GMT +1
On December 8 and December 12, 2011, NYSE volume in declining issues accounted for 96.73% and 89.51% (respectively) of NYSE total volume, and on December 9, 2011 (the day in between), NYSE volume in advancing issues accounted for 90.85% of NYSE total
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on Dec 13, 2011, 8:42 AM GMT +1
The S&P 500 had a rough start into the December OpEx (options expiration) and FOMC week, down -1.49% on Monday, December 12. But with the S&P 500 down on the 1st session of December's OpEx or FOMC week, the index had shown a remarkable posit
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