In order to make forecasts being part of my postings quantifiable (and maintainable), beginning on January 1, 2012, I'd like to introduce a Market Model.

The Market Model is a (hypothetical) traditional and active market timing strategy, changing positions almost daily, and taking (leveraged) long or short positions in major market (e.g. the SPDR® S&P 500® (SPY)), currency (e.g. RYDEX CurrencyShares) or commodity (e.g. SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD)) ETFs either on the close of the regular session, or via buy | sell stop order concerning the S&P 500 E-mini futures contract on CME Globex during the overnight and/or the next regular session.

Each day the strategy reassesses daily market movements, relative and intraday performance, underlying trends, calendar effects, sentiment data, breadth, volume, and how specific pattern in the markets played out in the past in order to determine what (the underlying), when (timing), where (the market), why and how much (position sizing) to bet on the next trade.

Position changes are given notice of promptly via Twitter.

Remarks: Due to their conceptual scope - and if not explicitly stated otherwise - , all strategies do not account for slippage, fees, transaction costs, return on cash and/or interest on margin, and do not use intraday buy/sell stops (end-of-day prices only). Index data (e.g. S&P 500 cash index) does not account for dividend and cash payments.

bto - buy to open      btc - buy to close      sto - sell to open      stc - sell to close