Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 27, 2010
On January 17, 2010, I mentioned that although since 01/01/2009 the SPY always posted a higher close (than the trigger day's close) 4 and 5 sessions later (after the SPY’s 2-day RSI closed above 96), it was the first occurrence (since 01/01/2009) t
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on November 5, 2009
Due to some business and family related matters, today a condensed version only. ___________ A trend day up was - based on historical probabilities and odds - the least expected outcome with respect to Thursday's session. But due to the fact that th
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on November 4, 2009
Wednesday's FOMC announcement session again perfectly complied to historical probabilities and odds calling for some extensive strength between yesterday's close and the start of Wednesday's last hour of the session. The ES E-MINI S&P 500 gaped
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on November 3, 2009
Unfortunately I'm still suffering from the touch of the flu, so posting will still be light (but that doesn't matter with respect to Wednesday's session). Tuesday's session perfectly complied to historical probabilities and odds calling for some ext
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 26, 2009
Since 01/01/1990 there were only 6 occurrences (now seven out of 156 FOMC announcement sessions) where the ES E-MINI S&P 500 closed lower on an FOMC announcement session and posted a loss on the then following two sessions as well. On Friday th
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 25, 2009
It seems that - at least temporarily - the tide has turned: Although historical probabilties and odds were (heavily) lopsided on the upside on Wednesday's FOMC announcement session and additionally on the then following session (today) when the ES E
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on September 24, 2009
On Wednesday's FOMC announcement session the ES E-MINI S&P 500 defied all probabilities and odds (which were heavily lopsided on the upside) and closed lower on the day (mainly due to a sell-off during the final hour of the session after the S&a
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