Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on March 11, 2010
On Wednesday's session, and with respect to the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI) for a 2-day period closed above 95 the sixth day in a row, and above 99 on the fourth consecutive session. With respect to the latter,
Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 14, 2010
Due to the fact that when bloggers/the bloggosphere/traders are discussing and talking about the 'overbought' ('oversold') state of the market (betting on a short-term mean-reversion tendency), they are regularly referring to and utilizing J. Welles
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 11, 2010
In full compliance to historical probabilites and odds, US major market closed lower on last Monday's session immediately following a session where the SPY had posted an intraday low at least -1.75% below the previous sessions close, but closed posit
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 6, 2010
US major market indices fully complied to historical probabilities and odds when the VIX had surged 20%+ on a single session in the past: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) showed the expected intraday weakness (follow-through of Thursday's weakness), went up
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 27, 2010
On January 17, 2010, I mentioned that although since 01/01/2009 the SPY always posted a higher close (than the trigger day's close) 4 and 5 sessions later (after the SPY’s 2-day RSI closed above 96), it was the first occurrence (since 01/01/2009) t
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on December 4, 2009
I'm a bit busy these days with some private (building and moving into a new home in a couple of weeks) and business matters, so blogging (and Twitter updates) were (and will probably remain for a couple of days and weeks) light. I am sorry for any i
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on November 28, 2009
On Thursday's session European indices (and futures on US major market indices) tanked on Dubai news (the ES E-MINI S&P 500 was temporarily down -3.75%), but although US major market indices closed sharply lower on Friday's half trading day, the
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