Trading The OddsMARKET TIMING & QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS |
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A quantitative approach to profit in the US equity and futures markets, trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker. The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much to bet on each trade or wager. |
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on March 4, 2010
With Wednesday's session, the SPY posted a second consecutive higher close, but closed below the open (a black 'candle') on both sessions. Although initially one might consider this market behaviour as a short-term bearish pattern, historical occurre
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 25, 2010
The RSI-High/Low(2) indicator seems to provide a good indication that buyers will not let the market go down without a fight (see my posting Modified RSI(2), Buying Power and Intermediate-Term Outlook ). But today's recovery from a significant intrad
Studies - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 14, 2010
Due to the fact that when bloggers/the bloggosphere/traders are discussing and talking about the 'overbought' ('oversold') state of the market (betting on a short-term mean-reversion tendency), they are regularly referring to and utilizing J. Welles
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 11, 2010
In full compliance to historical probabilites and odds, US major market closed lower on last Monday's session immediately following a session where the SPY had posted an intraday low at least -1.75% below the previous sessions close, but closed posit
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 6, 2010
US major market indices fully complied to historical probabilities and odds when the VIX had surged 20%+ on a single session in the past: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) showed the expected intraday weakness (follow-through of Thursday's weakness), went up
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on February 5, 2010
Major markets sold off today, with the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) up more than 20%. From a historical and statistical perspective, when the VIX surged 20% or more on a single session in the past, the market regularly turned around the then following
Daily Commentary - Posted by TradingTheOdds on January 17, 2010
On Thursday last week the SPY fulfilled the bullish setup (see my posting ‘Overbougth’ w/strong Uptrend) which was triggered on the close of Monday, January 11 when the SPY closed lower on a session after the SPY's 2-day RSI closed above 96 (a so
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